Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature

Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations

Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##           denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                          Ragusa          83  6.32        12.16       0.26
## 2                           Rieti         312  3.67         7.22       2.01
## 3                         Belluno        1042  3.05         5.57       5.13
## 4                         Isernia          53  2.63         3.92       0.63
## 5                          Savona        1053  2.28         5.41       3.81
## 6                          Verona        4398  1.55         4.17       4.75
## 7                            Asti        1343  1.52         5.00       6.26
## 8                       Benevento         175  1.37         2.34       0.63
## 9                            Enna         397  1.11         2.85       2.41
## 10                          Fermo         412  1.07         2.49       2.37
## 11                       Siracusa         200  1.02         1.52       0.50
## 12                         Biella         900  0.99         4.65       5.13
## 13                  Vibo Valentia          72  0.94         1.41       0.45
## 14                        Potenza         175  0.77         1.16       0.48
## 15                          Cuneo        2279  0.72         3.08       3.88
## 16                       Macerata         976  0.54         2.09       3.11
## 17                          Pavia        3991  0.51         3.02       7.31
## 18                         Ancona        1785  0.49         0.96       3.79
## 19                        Caserta         407  0.41         0.74       0.44
## 20                           Como        2871  0.40         3.87       4.79
## 21                  Massa-Carrara         966  0.38         0.73       4.96
## 22                        Messina         525  0.38         1.16       0.84
## 23                Pesaro e Urbino        2401  0.38         1.14       6.69
## 24                        Cosenza         439  0.36         2.09       0.62
## 25                        Livorno         499  0.34         0.81       1.49
## 26                        Brescia       12475  0.27         1.36       9.85
## 27                         Torino       11615  0.26         3.33       5.14
## 28                Bolzano / Bozen        2456  0.23         0.86       4.62
## 29                    Alessandria        3114  0.22         2.64       7.39
## 30                        Firenze        2849  0.18         1.93       2.82
## 31                         Modena        3519  0.16         0.83       4.99
## 32 Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1100  0.15         0.36       8.75
## 33                        Bologna        4033  0.13         1.56       3.97
## 34                      Pordenone         612  0.11         0.82       1.96
## 35                         Milano       17689  0.08         2.38       5.44
## 36                        Treviso        2420  0.07         1.04       2.73
## 37                        Viterbo         372  0.07         1.64       1.17
## 38                   Forlì-Cesena        1485  0.06         0.95       3.76
## 39                          Prato         493  0.05         1.44       1.91
## 40                         Arezzo         606  0.04         1.51       1.77
## 41          Monza e della Brianza        4372  0.02         1.27       5.00
## 42                         Padova        3794  0.01         0.66       4.05

Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##    denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                  Crotone         117  0.00         0.00       0.67
## 2                    Nuoro          74  0.00         0.00       0.35
## 3                 Oristano          52  0.00         0.00       0.33
## 4                Agrigento         132  0.00         0.00       0.30
## 5                  Trapani         135  0.00         0.00       0.31
## 6                    Lucca        1230  0.00         0.41       3.17
## 7                 Cagliari         229  0.00         0.44       0.53
## 8                 Avellino         434  0.00         0.46       1.04
## 9               Campobasso         216  0.00         0.47       0.98
## 10    Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         970 -0.04         0.83       6.13
## 11                 Salerno         643 -0.06         0.47       0.59
## 12                 Perugia         982 -0.07         0.10       1.50
## 13                   Udine         935 -0.07         0.43       1.77
## 14                   Siena         415 -0.08         0.24       1.55
## 15                   Lecco        2149 -0.09         0.80       6.37
## 16                 Vicenza        2483 -0.10         1.18       2.88
## 17                 Trieste        1164 -0.10         1.04       4.96
## 18           Ascoli Piceno         275 -0.12         0.36       1.33
## 19               La Spezia         809 -0.13         0.75       3.68
## 20                 Bergamo       11002 -0.15         0.51       9.87
## 21                  Trento        3776 -0.16         1.31       6.98
## 22                Grosseto         397 -0.18         0.76       1.79
## 23                 Ravenna         963 -0.18         0.73       2.47
## 24                  Latina         454 -0.22         0.00       0.79
## 25                 Mantova        3057 -0.23         1.16       7.41
## 26                    Roma        4361 -0.24         1.11       1.00
## 27                  Teramo         631 -0.27         0.00       2.05
## 28                  Varese        2376 -0.28         1.54       2.67
## 29                 Cremona        5867 -0.28         1.03      16.34
## 30           Caltanissetta         148 -0.29         2.07       0.56
## 31      Reggio nell'Emilia        4520 -0.29         0.85       8.50
## 32                Piacenza        3635 -0.29         1.37      12.66
## 33                   Terni         334 -0.30         0.00       1.48
## 34                 Pistoia         598 -0.30         1.01       2.04
## 35               Frosinone         547 -0.32         0.55       1.12
## 36                  Matera         185 -0.39         1.09       0.93
## 37                 Imperia        1214 -0.39         1.25       5.68
## 38                    Pisa         824 -0.41         0.12       1.97
## 39                 Sassari         811 -0.42         0.12       1.65
## 40                 Taranto         253 -0.42         0.80       0.44
## 41                L'Aquila         241 -0.42         0.00       0.81
## 42                Brindisi         535 -0.42         1.52       1.36
## 43                  Rimini        1927 -0.49         0.84       5.68
## 44                  Genova        4092 -0.50         1.51       4.86
## 45                 Catania         926 -0.53         2.32       0.84
## 46                 Palermo         435 -0.55         0.46       0.35
## 47                 Ferrara         877 -0.56         2.33       2.54
## 48               Catanzaro         201 -0.67         0.00       0.56
## 49      Reggio di Calabria         248 -0.68         0.00       0.45
## 50                   Parma        3011 -0.76         0.40       6.67
## 51            Sud Sardegna          91 -0.79         1.11       0.26
## 52                  Napoli        2334 -0.80         0.78       0.76
## 53                 Venezia        2340 -0.83         1.39       2.74
## 54                 Pescara        1244 -0.84         0.65       3.90
## 55                    Lodi        2836 -0.91         0.11      12.32
## 56                  Novara        2172 -0.96         1.35       5.89
## 57                 Sondrio        1088 -1.01         3.03       6.01
## 58                   Lecce         466 -1.02         0.00       0.59
## 59                  Foggia         969 -1.29         1.36       1.56
## 60                    Bari        1268 -1.33         1.68       1.01
## 61                  Rovigo         413 -1.35         2.48       1.76
## 62                Vercelli        1067 -1.52         1.04       6.24
## 63   Barletta-Andria-Trani         361 -1.94         0.28       0.93
## 64                  Chieti         687 -2.39         1.48       1.78
## 65                 Gorizia         168 -3.08         2.44       1.21

Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100

Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.

##         denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
##                         Cremona        5867           16.34   1
##                        Piacenza        3635           12.66   2
##                            Lodi        2836           12.32   3
##                         Bergamo       11002            9.87   4
##                         Brescia       12475            9.85   5
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1100            8.75   6
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4520            8.50   7
##                         Mantova        3057            7.41   8
##                     Alessandria        3114            7.39   9
##                           Pavia        3991            7.31  10
##                          Trento        3776            6.98  11
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2401            6.69  12
##                           Parma        3011            6.67  13
##                           Lecco        2149            6.37  14
##                            Asti        1343            6.26  15
##                        Vercelli        1067            6.24  16
##            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         970            6.13  17
##                         Sondrio        1088            6.01  18
##                          Novara        2172            5.89  19
##                          Rimini        1927            5.68  20
##                         Imperia        1214            5.68  21
##                          Milano       17689            5.44  22
##                          Torino       11615            5.14  23
##                         Belluno        1042            5.13  24
##                          Biella         900            5.13  25
##           Monza e della Brianza        4372            5.00  26
##                          Modena        3519            4.99  27
##                         Trieste        1164            4.96  28
##                   Massa-Carrara         966            4.96  29
##                          Genova        4092            4.86  30
##                            Como        2871            4.79  31
##                          Verona        4398            4.75  32
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2456            4.62  33
##                          Padova        3794            4.05  34
##                         Bologna        4033            3.97  35
##                         Pescara        1244            3.90  36
##                           Cuneo        2279            3.88  37
##                          Savona        1053            3.81  38
##                          Ancona        1785            3.79  39
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1485            3.76  40
##                       La Spezia         809            3.68  41
##                           Lucca        1230            3.17  42
##                        Macerata         976            3.11  43
##                         Vicenza        2483            2.88  44
##                         Firenze        2849            2.82  45
##                         Venezia        2340            2.74  46
##                         Treviso        2420            2.73  47
##                          Varese        2376            2.67  48
##                         Ferrara         877            2.54  49
##                         Ravenna         963            2.47  50
##                            Enna         397            2.41  51
##                           Fermo         412            2.37  52
##                          Teramo         631            2.05  53
##                         Pistoia         598            2.04  54
##                           Rieti         312            2.01  55
##                            Pisa         824            1.97  56
##                       Pordenone         612            1.96  57
##                           Prato         493            1.91  58
##                        Grosseto         397            1.79  59
##                          Chieti         687            1.78  60
##                          Arezzo         606            1.77  61
##                           Udine         935            1.77  62
##                          Rovigo         413            1.76  63
##                         Sassari         811            1.65  64
##                          Foggia         969            1.56  65
##                           Siena         415            1.55  66
##                         Perugia         982            1.50  67
##                         Livorno         499            1.49  68
##                           Terni         334            1.48  69
##                        Brindisi         535            1.36  70
##                   Ascoli Piceno         275            1.33  71
##                         Gorizia         168            1.21  72
##                         Viterbo         372            1.17  73
##                       Frosinone         547            1.12  74
##                        Avellino         434            1.04  75
##                            Bari        1268            1.01  76
##                            Roma        4361            1.00  77
##                      Campobasso         216            0.98  78
##                          Matera         185            0.93  79
##           Barletta-Andria-Trani         361            0.93  80
##                         Messina         525            0.84  81
##                         Catania         926            0.84  82
##                        L'Aquila         241            0.81  83
##                          Latina         454            0.79  84
##                          Napoli        2334            0.76  85
##                         Crotone         117            0.67  86
##                       Benevento         175            0.63  87
##                         Isernia          53            0.63  88
##                         Cosenza         439            0.62  89
##                           Lecce         466            0.59  90
##                         Salerno         643            0.59  91
##                   Caltanissetta         148            0.56  92
##                       Catanzaro         201            0.56  93
##                        Cagliari         229            0.53  94
##                        Siracusa         200            0.50  95
##                         Potenza         175            0.48  96
##              Reggio di Calabria         248            0.45  97
##                   Vibo Valentia          72            0.45  98
##                         Caserta         407            0.44  99
##                         Taranto         253            0.44 100
##                           Nuoro          74            0.35 101
##                         Palermo         435            0.35 102
##                        Oristano          52            0.33 103
##                         Trapani         135            0.31 104
##                       Agrigento         132            0.30 105
##                    Sud Sardegna          91            0.26 106
##                          Ragusa          83            0.26 107
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.2587  0.8816  2.0446  3.2334  4.9763 16.3447

Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Chieti         687       1.7816945         1.48           3.87
##  L'Aquila         241       0.8059365         0.00           0.42
##   Pescara        1244       3.9007993         0.65           1.49
##    Teramo         631       2.0483555         0.00           0.27

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Matera         185       0.9347731         1.09           1.48
##   Potenza         175       0.4795046         1.16           0.38

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Catanzaro         201       0.5609574         0.00           0.67
##             Cosenza         439       0.6220307         2.09           1.73
##             Crotone         117       0.6686478         0.00           0.00
##  Reggio di Calabria         248       0.4525473         0.00           0.68
##       Vibo Valentia          72       0.4497948         1.41           0.47

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Avellino         434       1.0375180         0.46           0.47
##  Benevento         175       0.6317279         2.34           0.97
##    Caserta         407       0.4409701         0.74           0.33
##     Napoli        2334       0.7565910         0.78           1.58
##    Salerno         643       0.5853367         0.47           0.52

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##             Bologna        4033        3.974891         1.56           1.43
##             Ferrara         877        2.536948         2.33           2.90
##        Forlì-Cesena        1485        3.763047         0.95           0.89
##              Modena        3519        4.988708         0.83           0.67
##               Parma        3011        6.666947         0.40           1.16
##            Piacenza        3635       12.658801         1.37           1.66
##             Ravenna         963        2.472680         0.73           0.92
##  Reggio nell'Emilia        4520        8.497982         0.85           1.14
##              Rimini        1927        5.684081         0.84           1.33

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Gorizia         168        1.205139         2.44           5.52
##  Pordenone         612        1.958193         0.82           0.72
##    Trieste        1164        4.963901         1.04           1.14
##      Udine         935        1.768184         0.43           0.50

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Frosinone         547       1.1184196         0.55           0.87
##     Latina         454       0.7892166         0.00           0.22
##      Rieti         312       2.0063922         7.22           3.55
##       Roma        4361       1.0043268         1.11           1.35
##    Viterbo         372       1.1733905         1.64           1.57

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##     Genova        4092        4.864595         1.51           2.01
##    Imperia        1214        5.677142         1.25           1.65
##  La Spezia         809        3.684709         0.75           0.88
##     Savona        1053        3.814333         5.41           3.13

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                Bergamo       11002        9.870894         0.51           0.66
##                Brescia       12475        9.854229         1.36           1.08
##                   Como        2871        4.791357         3.87           3.47
##                Cremona        5867       16.344667         1.03           1.32
##                  Lecco        2149        6.369672         0.80           0.88
##                   Lodi        2836       12.319829         0.11           1.02
##                Mantova        3057        7.414648         1.16           1.39
##                 Milano       17689        5.442242         2.38           2.31
##  Monza e della Brianza        4372        5.002660         1.27           1.26
##                  Pavia        3991        7.311024         3.02           2.51
##                Sondrio        1088        6.007896         3.03           4.04
##                 Varese        2376        2.667361         1.54           1.82

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Ancona        1785        3.787975         0.96           0.47
##    Ascoli Piceno         275        1.327355         0.36           0.49
##            Fermo         412        2.370541         2.49           1.41
##         Macerata         976        3.106519         2.09           1.55
##  Pesaro e Urbino        2401        6.690147         1.14           0.76

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##    province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Campobasso         216       0.9763241         0.47           0.47
##     Isernia          53       0.6281184         3.92           1.29

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##              province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Alessandria        3114        7.391688         2.64           2.41
##                  Asti        1343        6.257047         5.00           3.48
##                Biella         900        5.125723         4.65           3.66
##                 Cuneo        2279        3.881805         3.08           2.36
##                Novara        2172        5.885892         1.35           2.31
##                Torino       11615        5.140465         3.33           3.06
##  Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         970        6.125710         0.83           0.87
##              Vercelli        1067        6.243015         1.04           2.56

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                   Bari        1268       1.0127844         1.68           3.01
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         361       0.9256149         0.28           2.22
##               Brindisi         535       1.3614098         1.52           1.94
##                 Foggia         969       1.5574196         1.36           2.65
##                  Lecce         466       0.5860647         0.00           1.02
##                Taranto         253       0.4386604         0.80           1.21

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##      province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Cagliari         229       0.5312757         0.44           0.44
##         Nuoro          74       0.3548310         0.00           0.00
##      Oristano          52       0.3297254         0.00           0.00
##       Sassari         811       1.6498125         0.12           0.54
##  Sud Sardegna          91       0.2594625         1.11           1.90

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Agrigento         132       0.3035390         0.00           0.00
##  Caltanissetta         148       0.5638997         2.07           2.36
##        Catania         926       0.8359649         2.32           2.86
##           Enna         397       2.4091560         2.85           1.74
##        Messina         525       0.8374862         1.16           0.77
##        Palermo         435       0.3472810         0.46           1.02
##         Ragusa          83       0.2586532        12.16           5.84
##       Siracusa         200       0.5009719         1.52           0.51
##        Trapani         135       0.3135947         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Arezzo         606        1.768548         1.51           1.47
##        Firenze        2849        2.817030         1.93           1.76
##       Grosseto         397        1.791282         0.76           0.94
##        Livorno         499        1.490300         0.81           0.47
##          Lucca        1230        3.171117         0.41           0.41
##  Massa-Carrara         966        4.956947         0.73           0.35
##           Pisa         824        1.966413         0.12           0.53
##        Pistoia         598        2.044633         1.01           1.32
##          Prato         493        1.912958         1.44           1.39
##          Siena         415        1.553161         0.24           0.32

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Bolzano / Bozen        2456        4.623685         0.86           0.63
##           Trento        3776        6.978403         1.31           1.47

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Perugia         982         1.49608          0.1           0.17
##     Terni         334         1.48028          0.0           0.30

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##                        province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1100        8.753362         0.36
##  three_day_rate
##            0.21

## [1] "2020-04-24"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Belluno        1042        5.134270         5.57           2.52
##    Padova        3794        4.045173         0.66           0.65
##    Rovigo         413        1.757918         2.48           3.83
##   Treviso        2420        2.725821         1.04           0.97
##   Venezia        2340        2.742173         1.39           2.22
##    Verona        4398        4.746912         4.17           2.62
##   Vicenza        2483        2.879114         1.18           1.28