Calculations and charts - Italian provinces (by region) - COVID-19 Epidemic
Marcelo Eduardo Redoschi
Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature
Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations
Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases
## [1] "2020-04-24"## denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1 Ragusa 83 6.32 12.16 0.26
## 2 Rieti 312 3.67 7.22 2.01
## 3 Belluno 1042 3.05 5.57 5.13
## 4 Isernia 53 2.63 3.92 0.63
## 5 Savona 1053 2.28 5.41 3.81
## 6 Verona 4398 1.55 4.17 4.75
## 7 Asti 1343 1.52 5.00 6.26
## 8 Benevento 175 1.37 2.34 0.63
## 9 Enna 397 1.11 2.85 2.41
## 10 Fermo 412 1.07 2.49 2.37
## 11 Siracusa 200 1.02 1.52 0.50
## 12 Biella 900 0.99 4.65 5.13
## 13 Vibo Valentia 72 0.94 1.41 0.45
## 14 Potenza 175 0.77 1.16 0.48
## 15 Cuneo 2279 0.72 3.08 3.88
## 16 Macerata 976 0.54 2.09 3.11
## 17 Pavia 3991 0.51 3.02 7.31
## 18 Ancona 1785 0.49 0.96 3.79
## 19 Caserta 407 0.41 0.74 0.44
## 20 Como 2871 0.40 3.87 4.79
## 21 Massa-Carrara 966 0.38 0.73 4.96
## 22 Messina 525 0.38 1.16 0.84
## 23 Pesaro e Urbino 2401 0.38 1.14 6.69
## 24 Cosenza 439 0.36 2.09 0.62
## 25 Livorno 499 0.34 0.81 1.49
## 26 Brescia 12475 0.27 1.36 9.85
## 27 Torino 11615 0.26 3.33 5.14
## 28 Bolzano / Bozen 2456 0.23 0.86 4.62
## 29 Alessandria 3114 0.22 2.64 7.39
## 30 Firenze 2849 0.18 1.93 2.82
## 31 Modena 3519 0.16 0.83 4.99
## 32 Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1100 0.15 0.36 8.75
## 33 Bologna 4033 0.13 1.56 3.97
## 34 Pordenone 612 0.11 0.82 1.96
## 35 Milano 17689 0.08 2.38 5.44
## 36 Treviso 2420 0.07 1.04 2.73
## 37 Viterbo 372 0.07 1.64 1.17
## 38 Forlì-Cesena 1485 0.06 0.95 3.76
## 39 Prato 493 0.05 1.44 1.91
## 40 Arezzo 606 0.04 1.51 1.77
## 41 Monza e della Brianza 4372 0.02 1.27 5.00
## 42 Padova 3794 0.01 0.66 4.05Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase
## [1] "2020-04-24"## denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1 Crotone 117 0.00 0.00 0.67
## 2 Nuoro 74 0.00 0.00 0.35
## 3 Oristano 52 0.00 0.00 0.33
## 4 Agrigento 132 0.00 0.00 0.30
## 5 Trapani 135 0.00 0.00 0.31
## 6 Lucca 1230 0.00 0.41 3.17
## 7 Cagliari 229 0.00 0.44 0.53
## 8 Avellino 434 0.00 0.46 1.04
## 9 Campobasso 216 0.00 0.47 0.98
## 10 Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 970 -0.04 0.83 6.13
## 11 Salerno 643 -0.06 0.47 0.59
## 12 Perugia 982 -0.07 0.10 1.50
## 13 Udine 935 -0.07 0.43 1.77
## 14 Siena 415 -0.08 0.24 1.55
## 15 Lecco 2149 -0.09 0.80 6.37
## 16 Vicenza 2483 -0.10 1.18 2.88
## 17 Trieste 1164 -0.10 1.04 4.96
## 18 Ascoli Piceno 275 -0.12 0.36 1.33
## 19 La Spezia 809 -0.13 0.75 3.68
## 20 Bergamo 11002 -0.15 0.51 9.87
## 21 Trento 3776 -0.16 1.31 6.98
## 22 Grosseto 397 -0.18 0.76 1.79
## 23 Ravenna 963 -0.18 0.73 2.47
## 24 Latina 454 -0.22 0.00 0.79
## 25 Mantova 3057 -0.23 1.16 7.41
## 26 Roma 4361 -0.24 1.11 1.00
## 27 Teramo 631 -0.27 0.00 2.05
## 28 Varese 2376 -0.28 1.54 2.67
## 29 Cremona 5867 -0.28 1.03 16.34
## 30 Caltanissetta 148 -0.29 2.07 0.56
## 31 Reggio nell'Emilia 4520 -0.29 0.85 8.50
## 32 Piacenza 3635 -0.29 1.37 12.66
## 33 Terni 334 -0.30 0.00 1.48
## 34 Pistoia 598 -0.30 1.01 2.04
## 35 Frosinone 547 -0.32 0.55 1.12
## 36 Matera 185 -0.39 1.09 0.93
## 37 Imperia 1214 -0.39 1.25 5.68
## 38 Pisa 824 -0.41 0.12 1.97
## 39 Sassari 811 -0.42 0.12 1.65
## 40 Taranto 253 -0.42 0.80 0.44
## 41 L'Aquila 241 -0.42 0.00 0.81
## 42 Brindisi 535 -0.42 1.52 1.36
## 43 Rimini 1927 -0.49 0.84 5.68
## 44 Genova 4092 -0.50 1.51 4.86
## 45 Catania 926 -0.53 2.32 0.84
## 46 Palermo 435 -0.55 0.46 0.35
## 47 Ferrara 877 -0.56 2.33 2.54
## 48 Catanzaro 201 -0.67 0.00 0.56
## 49 Reggio di Calabria 248 -0.68 0.00 0.45
## 50 Parma 3011 -0.76 0.40 6.67
## 51 Sud Sardegna 91 -0.79 1.11 0.26
## 52 Napoli 2334 -0.80 0.78 0.76
## 53 Venezia 2340 -0.83 1.39 2.74
## 54 Pescara 1244 -0.84 0.65 3.90
## 55 Lodi 2836 -0.91 0.11 12.32
## 56 Novara 2172 -0.96 1.35 5.89
## 57 Sondrio 1088 -1.01 3.03 6.01
## 58 Lecce 466 -1.02 0.00 0.59
## 59 Foggia 969 -1.29 1.36 1.56
## 60 Bari 1268 -1.33 1.68 1.01
## 61 Rovigo 413 -1.35 2.48 1.76
## 62 Vercelli 1067 -1.52 1.04 6.24
## 63 Barletta-Andria-Trani 361 -1.94 0.28 0.93
## 64 Chieti 687 -2.39 1.48 1.78
## 65 Gorizia 168 -3.08 2.44 1.21Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100
Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.
## denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
## Cremona 5867 16.34 1
## Piacenza 3635 12.66 2
## Lodi 2836 12.32 3
## Bergamo 11002 9.87 4
## Brescia 12475 9.85 5
## Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1100 8.75 6
## Reggio nell'Emilia 4520 8.50 7
## Mantova 3057 7.41 8
## Alessandria 3114 7.39 9
## Pavia 3991 7.31 10
## Trento 3776 6.98 11
## Pesaro e Urbino 2401 6.69 12
## Parma 3011 6.67 13
## Lecco 2149 6.37 14
## Asti 1343 6.26 15
## Vercelli 1067 6.24 16
## Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 970 6.13 17
## Sondrio 1088 6.01 18
## Novara 2172 5.89 19
## Rimini 1927 5.68 20
## Imperia 1214 5.68 21
## Milano 17689 5.44 22
## Torino 11615 5.14 23
## Belluno 1042 5.13 24
## Biella 900 5.13 25
## Monza e della Brianza 4372 5.00 26
## Modena 3519 4.99 27
## Trieste 1164 4.96 28
## Massa-Carrara 966 4.96 29
## Genova 4092 4.86 30
## Como 2871 4.79 31
## Verona 4398 4.75 32
## Bolzano / Bozen 2456 4.62 33
## Padova 3794 4.05 34
## Bologna 4033 3.97 35
## Pescara 1244 3.90 36
## Cuneo 2279 3.88 37
## Savona 1053 3.81 38
## Ancona 1785 3.79 39
## Forlì-Cesena 1485 3.76 40
## La Spezia 809 3.68 41
## Lucca 1230 3.17 42
## Macerata 976 3.11 43
## Vicenza 2483 2.88 44
## Firenze 2849 2.82 45
## Venezia 2340 2.74 46
## Treviso 2420 2.73 47
## Varese 2376 2.67 48
## Ferrara 877 2.54 49
## Ravenna 963 2.47 50
## Enna 397 2.41 51
## Fermo 412 2.37 52
## Teramo 631 2.05 53
## Pistoia 598 2.04 54
## Rieti 312 2.01 55
## Pisa 824 1.97 56
## Pordenone 612 1.96 57
## Prato 493 1.91 58
## Grosseto 397 1.79 59
## Chieti 687 1.78 60
## Arezzo 606 1.77 61
## Udine 935 1.77 62
## Rovigo 413 1.76 63
## Sassari 811 1.65 64
## Foggia 969 1.56 65
## Siena 415 1.55 66
## Perugia 982 1.50 67
## Livorno 499 1.49 68
## Terni 334 1.48 69
## Brindisi 535 1.36 70
## Ascoli Piceno 275 1.33 71
## Gorizia 168 1.21 72
## Viterbo 372 1.17 73
## Frosinone 547 1.12 74
## Avellino 434 1.04 75
## Bari 1268 1.01 76
## Roma 4361 1.00 77
## Campobasso 216 0.98 78
## Matera 185 0.93 79
## Barletta-Andria-Trani 361 0.93 80
## Messina 525 0.84 81
## Catania 926 0.84 82
## L'Aquila 241 0.81 83
## Latina 454 0.79 84
## Napoli 2334 0.76 85
## Crotone 117 0.67 86
## Benevento 175 0.63 87
## Isernia 53 0.63 88
## Cosenza 439 0.62 89
## Lecce 466 0.59 90
## Salerno 643 0.59 91
## Caltanissetta 148 0.56 92
## Catanzaro 201 0.56 93
## Cagliari 229 0.53 94
## Siracusa 200 0.50 95
## Potenza 175 0.48 96
## Reggio di Calabria 248 0.45 97
## Vibo Valentia 72 0.45 98
## Caserta 407 0.44 99
## Taranto 253 0.44 100
## Nuoro 74 0.35 101
## Palermo 435 0.35 102
## Oristano 52 0.33 103
## Trapani 135 0.31 104
## Agrigento 132 0.30 105
## Sud Sardegna 91 0.26 106
## Ragusa 83 0.26 107## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0.2587 0.8816 2.0446 3.2334 4.9763 16.3447Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Chieti 687 1.7816945 1.48 3.87
## L'Aquila 241 0.8059365 0.00 0.42
## Pescara 1244 3.9007993 0.65 1.49
## Teramo 631 2.0483555 0.00 0.27
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Matera 185 0.9347731 1.09 1.48
## Potenza 175 0.4795046 1.16 0.38
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Catanzaro 201 0.5609574 0.00 0.67
## Cosenza 439 0.6220307 2.09 1.73
## Crotone 117 0.6686478 0.00 0.00
## Reggio di Calabria 248 0.4525473 0.00 0.68
## Vibo Valentia 72 0.4497948 1.41 0.47
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Avellino 434 1.0375180 0.46 0.47
## Benevento 175 0.6317279 2.34 0.97
## Caserta 407 0.4409701 0.74 0.33
## Napoli 2334 0.7565910 0.78 1.58
## Salerno 643 0.5853367 0.47 0.52
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bologna 4033 3.974891 1.56 1.43
## Ferrara 877 2.536948 2.33 2.90
## Forlì-Cesena 1485 3.763047 0.95 0.89
## Modena 3519 4.988708 0.83 0.67
## Parma 3011 6.666947 0.40 1.16
## Piacenza 3635 12.658801 1.37 1.66
## Ravenna 963 2.472680 0.73 0.92
## Reggio nell'Emilia 4520 8.497982 0.85 1.14
## Rimini 1927 5.684081 0.84 1.33
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Gorizia 168 1.205139 2.44 5.52
## Pordenone 612 1.958193 0.82 0.72
## Trieste 1164 4.963901 1.04 1.14
## Udine 935 1.768184 0.43 0.50
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Frosinone 547 1.1184196 0.55 0.87
## Latina 454 0.7892166 0.00 0.22
## Rieti 312 2.0063922 7.22 3.55
## Roma 4361 1.0043268 1.11 1.35
## Viterbo 372 1.1733905 1.64 1.57
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Genova 4092 4.864595 1.51 2.01
## Imperia 1214 5.677142 1.25 1.65
## La Spezia 809 3.684709 0.75 0.88
## Savona 1053 3.814333 5.41 3.13
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bergamo 11002 9.870894 0.51 0.66
## Brescia 12475 9.854229 1.36 1.08
## Como 2871 4.791357 3.87 3.47
## Cremona 5867 16.344667 1.03 1.32
## Lecco 2149 6.369672 0.80 0.88
## Lodi 2836 12.319829 0.11 1.02
## Mantova 3057 7.414648 1.16 1.39
## Milano 17689 5.442242 2.38 2.31
## Monza e della Brianza 4372 5.002660 1.27 1.26
## Pavia 3991 7.311024 3.02 2.51
## Sondrio 1088 6.007896 3.03 4.04
## Varese 2376 2.667361 1.54 1.82
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Ancona 1785 3.787975 0.96 0.47
## Ascoli Piceno 275 1.327355 0.36 0.49
## Fermo 412 2.370541 2.49 1.41
## Macerata 976 3.106519 2.09 1.55
## Pesaro e Urbino 2401 6.690147 1.14 0.76
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Campobasso 216 0.9763241 0.47 0.47
## Isernia 53 0.6281184 3.92 1.29
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Alessandria 3114 7.391688 2.64 2.41
## Asti 1343 6.257047 5.00 3.48
## Biella 900 5.125723 4.65 3.66
## Cuneo 2279 3.881805 3.08 2.36
## Novara 2172 5.885892 1.35 2.31
## Torino 11615 5.140465 3.33 3.06
## Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 970 6.125710 0.83 0.87
## Vercelli 1067 6.243015 1.04 2.56
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bari 1268 1.0127844 1.68 3.01
## Barletta-Andria-Trani 361 0.9256149 0.28 2.22
## Brindisi 535 1.3614098 1.52 1.94
## Foggia 969 1.5574196 1.36 2.65
## Lecce 466 0.5860647 0.00 1.02
## Taranto 253 0.4386604 0.80 1.21
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Cagliari 229 0.5312757 0.44 0.44
## Nuoro 74 0.3548310 0.00 0.00
## Oristano 52 0.3297254 0.00 0.00
## Sassari 811 1.6498125 0.12 0.54
## Sud Sardegna 91 0.2594625 1.11 1.90
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Agrigento 132 0.3035390 0.00 0.00
## Caltanissetta 148 0.5638997 2.07 2.36
## Catania 926 0.8359649 2.32 2.86
## Enna 397 2.4091560 2.85 1.74
## Messina 525 0.8374862 1.16 0.77
## Palermo 435 0.3472810 0.46 1.02
## Ragusa 83 0.2586532 12.16 5.84
## Siracusa 200 0.5009719 1.52 0.51
## Trapani 135 0.3135947 0.00 0.00
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Arezzo 606 1.768548 1.51 1.47
## Firenze 2849 2.817030 1.93 1.76
## Grosseto 397 1.791282 0.76 0.94
## Livorno 499 1.490300 0.81 0.47
## Lucca 1230 3.171117 0.41 0.41
## Massa-Carrara 966 4.956947 0.73 0.35
## Pisa 824 1.966413 0.12 0.53
## Pistoia 598 2.044633 1.01 1.32
## Prato 493 1.912958 1.44 1.39
## Siena 415 1.553161 0.24 0.32
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bolzano / Bozen 2456 4.623685 0.86 0.63
## Trento 3776 6.978403 1.31 1.47
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Perugia 982 1.49608 0.1 0.17
## Terni 334 1.48028 0.0 0.30
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
## Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1100 8.753362 0.36
## three_day_rate
## 0.21
## [1] "2020-04-24"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Belluno 1042 5.134270 5.57 2.52
## Padova 3794 4.045173 0.66 0.65
## Rovigo 413 1.757918 2.48 3.83
## Treviso 2420 2.725821 1.04 0.97
## Venezia 2340 2.742173 1.39 2.22
## Verona 4398 4.746912 4.17 2.62
## Vicenza 2483 2.879114 1.18 1.28
